EuroLeague predictions for Thursday 22 October

A busy six-game EuroLeague slate unfolds on Thursday 22 October, beginning in Istanbul where Anadolu Efes host Besiktas at 17:30 UTC. Front and centre on the board is Panathinaikos, whom the projection system singles out as the day's overwhelming favourite with an 89% probability of victory.

Parity dominates the rest of the schedule, epitomised by Dubai's razor-thin visit to Bayern where the hosts hold just a 49% chance in the day's tightest contest. Scorers should thrive most in the matchup between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Real Madrid, featuring a slate-topping 182.5-point market line. Across all fixtures, only one selection earns strong status, leaving the remaining encounters categorised as leans or genuine coin flips.

EuroLeague picks at a glance

Anadolu Efes vs Besiktas prediction

Local court advantage is central to the outcome at Basketbol Gelisim Merkezi, where the 2.4-point boost awarded to hosts tilts the balance toward Anadolu Efes. The model calculates a 64% likelihood of a home win and anticipates an 88–85 final score. Besiktas actually possess the fractional edge in adjusted efficiency, rating at -0.3 against an average opponent compared to Efes at -0.6, yet bookmakers also point toward the hosts with an implied 67% probability across 9 books once margins are removed.

Recent outings highlight divergent tempos for the two Turkish clubs. Efes managed two victories across their last five fixtures, averaging 82.0 points scored while surrendering 84.2. Besiktas enjoyed a slightly better run with three wins in five, operating at a far more hectic pace that produced 92.0 points per contest alongside 91.8 allowed.

In the league table, Besiktas hold 11th place courtesy of an even 3–3 record. Anadolu Efes trail slightly in 13th position, having put together a 2–4 start through six rounds of competition.

A 4.5-point handicap has been established in favor of the hosts, though the projection model favours Besiktas to stay inside that number 53% of the time. The 173 combined points forecasted by the algorithm align closely with the market line of 172.5, yielding a 52% edge to the over.

• Win probability: Anadolu Efes 64%, Besiktas 36%
• Projected score: Anadolu Efes 88, Besiktas 85
• Spread: Anadolu Efes -4.5. The model has Besiktas covering 53% of the time.
• Total: 172.5 points, with the over at 52%. Our projected total is 173.
• Anadolu Efes: 13th, 2–4
• Besiktas: 11th, 3–3

Our pick: Anadolu Efes to win (64%). Projected score: 88–85. Full prediction · likely lineups

Bayern vs Dubai prediction

Efficiency metrics give visiting Dubai a slight nod as they head to SAP Garden. Rating at -0.3 relative to an average opponent, the newcomers hold a 1.1-point adjusted efficiency cushion over Bayern (-1.3), which just offsets the standard 2.4-point home-court swing. The model subsequently hands Dubai a 51% win probability in an 87–86 projection, a sentiment echoed across 9 sportsbooks where the visitors hold a 54% market assessment.

Dubai's current trajectory looks firmer, having claimed three victories from their past five while putting up 82.4 points and conceding 83.2. Bayern, conversely, have struggled to contain opposing offences, dropping four of their previous five games as opponents poured in 93.6 points against their 87.0 average.

The standings reflect those differing fortunes: Dubai occupy 7th spot with a positive 4–2 mark, whereas the German side sit 15th at 2–4. Dwayne Bacon sets the pace for the road team at 19.0 points a game, contrasting with Duane Washington who supplies 14.7 per contest for Munich.

Because the projected outcome indicates an outright road triumph by a single point, Bayern covering the +1.5 spread stands out at a 54% clip. On totals, the 173 points anticipated by the computer create a marginal 51% leaning toward the over on a 172.5 total.

• Win probability: Bayern 49%, Dubai 51%
• Projected score: Bayern 86, Dubai 87
• Spread: Bayern +1.5. The model has Bayern covering 54% of the time.
• Total: 172.5 points, with the over at 51%. Our projected total is 173.
• Bayern: 15th, 2–4
• Dubai: 7th, 4–2
• Leading scorers: Duane Washington (Bayern, 14.7 points a game) and Dwayne Bacon (Dubai, 19.0 points a game)

Our pick: Dubai to win (51%). Projected score: 87–86. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid prediction

Real Madrid bring clear baseline efficiency into Aleksandar Nikolic Hall, rating +1.6 against average competition to create a 3.1-point advantage over Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.4). Even after discounting for standard home court worth 2.4 points, the projection model backs the Spanish power at 60% with a predicted 91–89 final score, while 9 sportsbooks reflect similar confidence via a 63% implied win share.

Both teams have lived in high-scoring contests recently. Real Madrid took three of their last five behind an explosive 95.4 points per game while allowing 90.6. Maccabi managed two wins in that span, posting 87.0 points per outing but giving up 91.2.

The table shows Madrid holding 9th place at 3–3, while Maccabi sit lower down in 16th with a 2–4 slate. Both lineups showcase balanced perimeter scoring, with Yam Madar and Andres Feliz matching each other identically at 16.7 points a night for their respective teams.

Sportsbooks have set a broad 4.5-point cushion for Maccabi, but the model anticipates a tight two-point finish, giving Maccabi a 56% probability of beating the spread. The total of 182.5 sits slightly above the projected 180-point aggregate, making under 182.5 a 56% lean.

• Win probability: Maccabi Tel Aviv 40%, Real Madrid 60%
• Projected score: Maccabi Tel Aviv 89, Real Madrid 91
• Spread: Maccabi Tel Aviv +4.5. The model has Maccabi Tel Aviv covering 56% of the time.
• Total: 182.5 points, with the under at 56%. Our projected total is 180.
• Maccabi Tel Aviv: 16th, 2–4
• Real Madrid: 9th, 3–3
• Leading scorers: Yam Madar (Maccabi Tel Aviv, 16.7 points a game) and Andres Feliz (Real Madrid, 16.7 points a game)

Our pick: Real Madrid to win (60%). Projected score: 91–89. Full prediction · likely lineups

Panathinaikos vs Baskonia prediction

A massive quality chasm dictates the clash at Telekom Center Athens. Panathinaikos boast an adjusted efficiency of +4.9, whereas Baskonia languish at -4, generating a huge 8.9-point net rating disparity that widens further once 2.4 points of home court are included. The math grants Panathinaikos an 89% win probability and a 91–80 victory, matching an identical 89% consensus from 8 bookmakers.

Form mirrors those underlying indicators. Panathinaikos were victorious in four of their past five matches, holding opponents to 73.2 points a game while delivering 87.4 themselves. Baskonia, meanwhile, have dropped four of five, suffering defensive breakdowns that yielded 91.6 points a contest against an offensive return of 83.0.

Standings place the teams at opposite poles: the Athens club rule 1st place with a 5–1 record, whereas Baskonia occupy the very bottom in 20th at 1–5.

Despite the expected rout, the bookmakers' 15.5-point spread looks somewhat steep against an 11-point projected margin, giving Baskonia a 56% chance to cover. The expected 171-point scoreline nudges under the 172.5 game line at a 53% rate.

• Win probability: Panathinaikos 89%, Baskonia 11%
• Projected score: Panathinaikos 91, Baskonia 80
• Spread: Panathinaikos -15.5. The model has Baskonia covering 56% of the time.
• Total: 172.5 points, with the under at 53%. Our projected total is 171.
• Panathinaikos: 1st, 5–1
• Baskonia: 20th, 1–5

Our pick: Panathinaikos to win (89%). Projected score: 91–80. Full prediction · likely lineups

Olimpia Milano vs Barcelona prediction

The standard 2.4-point home floor swing keeps Olimpia Milano marginally ahead at Unipol Forum despite inferior underlying numbers. Rating at -3.8 in adjusted efficiency compared to Barcelona's -0.2, Milano surrender a 3.6-point efficiency margin to the visitors, but home advantage keeps their model win expectation at 52% in an 89–88 forecast. Nine bookmakers take a slightly firmer view, pegging Milano at 56%.

Defensive lapses have punished Milano during a spell of four losses in five games, as they conceded 93.4 points per contest while scoring 85.6. Barcelona have split recent competitive waters slightly better with two wins in five, netting 90.6 points per night while allowing 91.2.

Barcelona arrive placed 10th in the table at 3–3, contrasting with the Italian hosts who reside down in 19th at 1–5. Individual output for Milano has been led by Moses Wright, who posts 16.7 points per game.

With the projection forecasting a single-point separation, the 2.5 points handed to Barcelona on the spread leave the visitors with a 57% cover chance. Points are expected in volume: a 177-point projected aggregate beats the 175.5 total line for a 53% over pick.

• Win probability: Olimpia Milano 52%, Barcelona 48%
• Projected score: Olimpia Milano 89, Barcelona 88
• Spread: Olimpia Milano -2.5. The model has Barcelona covering 57% of the time.
• Total: 175.5 points, with the over at 53%. Our projected total is 177.
• Olimpia Milano: 19th, 1–5
• Barcelona: 10th, 3–3
• Leading scorers: Moses Wright (Olimpia Milano, 16.7 points a game)

Our pick: Olimpia Milano to win (52%). Projected score: 89–88. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups

Partizan Mozzart Bet vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet prediction

Host advantage at Beogradska arena proves vital in the Belgrade derby, where Partizan Mozzart Bet enjoy the usual 2.4-point court bonus to counter Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet's superior efficiency. Crvena Zvezda hold a 1.5-point edge in adjusted net ratings (+1.3 to Partizan's -0.2), making the fixture essentially even; the model nudges Partizan ahead at 52% in an 82–81 call, matching the 51% consensus derived from 9 bookmakers.

Momentum belongs to Zvezda, who took four of their last five while maintaining stingy defensive figures by limiting opponents to 74.8 points per game alongside 81.6 scored. Partizan won just two of their past five, averaging 74.8 points on offence while giving up 79.0.

In the league ladder, Crvena Zvezda sit in 6th place with a 4–2 record, whereas Partizan reside in 12th position at 3–3. Primary production comes from Jordan Nwora (16.3 points per game) for the visitors, while Carlik Jones spearheads Partizan with 11.0 points a game.

Because the projected margin sits at only a single point, Crvena Zvezda hold a 52% chance to cover the +1.5 line. In addition, an expected defensive standoff yielding 163 combined points leads to a 55% probability on the under 164.5.

• Win probability: Partizan Mozzart Bet 52%, Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet 48%
• Projected score: Partizan Mozzart Bet 82, Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet 81
• Spread: Partizan Mozzart Bet -1.5. The model has Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet covering 52% of the time.
• Total: 164.5 points, with the under at 55%. Our projected total is 163.
• Partizan Mozzart Bet: 12th, 3–3
• Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet: 6th, 4–2
• Leading scorers: Carlik Jones (Partizan Mozzart Bet, 11.0 points a game) and Jordan Nwora (Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet, 16.3 points a game)

Our pick: Partizan Mozzart Bet to win (52%). Projected score: 82–81. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups

EuroLeague standings before tip-off

Full EuroLeague standings

Questions about Thursday 22 October's EuroLeague games

What is the best EuroLeague bet for Thursday 22 October?

Statistically, backing Panathinaikos to win at an 89% probability is the top choice on the board, representing the lone strong selection. Keep in mind that even an 89% chance fails once out of every ten attempts.

Which EuroLeague game is the hardest to call?

The duel between Bayern and Dubai stands as the most evenly matched fixture, with Dubai holding a 51% edge over Bayern's 49% in an 87–86 projection.

Which game should have the most points?

Expect the highest scoring output when Maccabi Tel Aviv face Real Madrid, where the 182.5-point game line leads the slate alongside an 89–91 projected score.

How are these predictions made?

The system evaluates team performance using past results, scoring differentials, and home court influence, integrating prevailing market prices whenever odds are active. The full framework is detailed on the How it works page.

Probabilities serve solely as projections, never certainties. 18+ only; if gambling creates problems, consult responsible gambling. Additional data is available via the EuroLeague predictions hub.