Partizan Mozzart Bet vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet prediction
Our pick
Toss-upPrediction updated
- Predicted score
- 82–81
- Margin
- +1
Our lines
Who will win Partizan Mozzart Bet vs Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet?
Partizan Mozzart Bet are narrow 51% home favourites over Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet in a game the model sees as close to a coin flip.
The model's lean toward Partizan Mozzart Bet rests almost entirely on home court, which is worth about 2.4 points in this competition. Strip that away and Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet hold a 1.5-point edge on adjusted efficiency, rating +1.3 against an average side while Partizan Mozzart Bet sit at -0.2. That tension explains why the projection lands at 82–81 rather than anything more decisive, and why the market, once the bookmaker margin is removed, prices Partizan Mozzart Bet at 50% across 9 bookmakers.
Recent form points the other way. Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 81.6 and allowing 74.8 points a game over that stretch, a balanced profile that matches their 5th place at 4–2. Partizan Mozzart Bet have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 74.8 and allowing 79.0, and they sit 12th at 3–3. The underdog case here is really the favourite's case: Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet have been the better team on both ends lately and by the efficiency measure.
The projected 82–81 scoreline shapes both markets. A one-point margin means Partizan Mozzart Bet -1.5 covers just 48% of the time on our numbers, so the spread offers no real edge either way. The total is where the model finds separation: against a projected 160.3 points, the under 164.5 lands 55%.
With the win probability at 51% and the market effectively split, this is a game to treat with care rather than conviction. The home-court bump is what separates the sides in the projection, and it is thin enough that the efficiency gap and recent form could easily flip the result.
Partizan Mozzart Bet to win (51%), projected score 82–81, with the lean treated carefully given how close to a coin flip it is.
Markets
| Market | Selection | Model | Market | Final | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner (incl. overtime) | Partizan Mozzart Bet | 54% | 50% | 51% | 1.94 |
| Winner (incl. overtime) | Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet | 46% | 50% | 49% | 2.06 |
| Point spread | Partizan Mozzart Bet -1.5 | 48% | 48% | 48% | 2.10 |
| Point spread | Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet +1.5 | 52% | 52% | 52% | 1.91 |
| Total points | Over 164.5 | 39% | 49% | 45% | 2.22 |
| Total points | Under 164.5 | 61% | 51% | 55% | 1.82 |
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Tale of the tape
- 3–3Season record4–2
- 1–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road2–0
- 3–3Last 10 games4–2
- L3Current streakW4
- 77.7Points per game80.8
- 78.5Points allowed per game76.2
- −0.8Average margin+4.6
- 6 daysRest before this game5 days
- 0Games in the last 7 days1
- 33.0Rebounds per game33.7
- 17.7Assists per game21.7
- 4.3Three-pointers made per game8.7
- 27.0Bench points per game35.7
- −0.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+1.3
- −3.6AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.5
- +3.5DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+3.8
- +2.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–
Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.
Quarter by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizan Mozzart Bet | −0.818.5–19.3 | −1.019.0–20.0 | −5.816.7–22.5 | +6.823.5–16.7 |
| Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet | −1.921.3–23.2 | +2.719.0–16.3 | +2.721.5–18.8 | +1.219.0–17.8 |
Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.
Key matchup
Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games
- 11.0Points16.3
- 2.3Rebounds5.0
- 5.3Assists0.7
- 0.3Three-pointers made2.0
- 27.3Minutes21.7
Team leaders
- Points · PPG
- Rebounds · RPG
- Assists · APG
- Three-pointers made · 3PM
Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (3 per team); current squads only.
Key battles
Player projectionsPro
Likely lineups
Likely starting five
- Carlik JonesStarted 3 of last 3
- PPG
- 11.0
- RPG
- 2.3
- APG
- 5.3
- Thompson E.Started 3 of last 3
- PPG
- 10.0
- RPG
- 3.0
- APG
- 2.3
- Nikola TanaskovicStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 5.3
- RPG
- 4.3
- APG
- 1.0
- Kevarrius HayesStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 9.0
- RPG
- 3.0
- APG
- 0.0
- Alessandro PajolaStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 3.0
- RPG
- 4.0
- APG
- 3.3
Likely starting five
- Chima MonekeStarted 3 of last 3
- PPG
- 15.3
- RPG
- 3.7
- APG
- 0.7
- Semi OjeleyeStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 12.7
- RPG
- 4.3
- APG
- 1.0
- Chris JonesStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 7.0
- RPG
- 3.3
- APG
- 6.7
- Jared ButlerStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 8.0
- RPG
- 1.0
- APG
- 3.3
- Nikola DjurisicStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 6.5
- RPG
- 2.0
- APG
- 0.5
Recent form
Partizan Mozzart Bet
2–33–3, 12th in
- @ Fenerbahce65–74
- vs Panathinaikos55–72
- @ Real Madrid76–86
- @ Bayern86–84
- @ Paris92–79
Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet
4–14–2, 5th in
- vs Paris90–81
- @ Lyon-Villeurbanne84–82
- @ Dubai77–58
- vs Anadolu Efes77–72
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv80–81
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.