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Anadolu Efes vs Besiktas prediction

HomeAnadolu Efes2–4, 13th in AwayBesiktas3–3, 11th in
Tip-off
62%38%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Anadolu Efes to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
88–85
Margin
+3

Who will win Anadolu Efes vs Besiktas?

Anadolu Efes are the pick at 62% to beat Besiktas at home, with the model projecting an 88–85 final.

The model gives Anadolu Efes a 62% chance at home, and the market lands almost exactly there, pricing them at 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed across 9 bookmakers. That agreement is the starting point: this is a close game, not a comfortable one, and the projected 88–85 final says the same. The home court is worth about 2.4 points in this competition, and that cushion is a large part of why the home side is favoured at all.

The table and the form cut in different directions. Anadolu Efes sit 13th at 2–4, while Besiktas sit 11th at 3–3, and over the last five Besiktas have won 3 against Anadolu Efes' 2. On adjusted efficiency, though, the gap is tiny: Anadolu Efes rate -0.6 and Besiktas -0.3 points per game against an average side, a 0.3-point edge to Besiktas. In other words, the visitor has been the slightly better team by the underlying numbers, which is exactly why the underdog has a case.

Anadolu Efes to win at 62%, with the model projecting an 88–85 final.

Tale of the tape

Anadolu EfesBefore tip-offBesiktas
  • 2–4Season record3–3
  • 1–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road2–1
  • 2–4Last 10 games3–3
  • W1Current streakW1
  • 82.0Points per game92.3
  • 85.0Points allowed per game92.5
  • −3.0Average margin−0.2
  • 2 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days2
  • 34.8Rebounds per game27.0
  • 20.5Assists per game20.7
  • 7.5Three-pointers made per game9.7
  • 27.5Bench points per game42.7
  • −0.6Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.3
  • −1.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+1.6
  • +1.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.9
  • +2.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Anadolu Efes+0.722.0–21.30.020.0–20.0−0.820.7–21.5−2.919.3–22.2
Besiktas+2.023.8–21.8−1.523.5–25.0−3.320.7–24.0+2.624.3–21.7

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Dario SaricAnadolu EfesVSAnte ZizicBesiktas

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 14.0Points13.7
  • 7.3Rebounds7.0
  • 2.8Assists1.7
  • 0.5Three-pointers made0.0
  • 28.1Minutes22.2

Team leaders

Anadolu EfesThis seasonBesiktas

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Dario SaricVSAnte Zizic
PTS
14.0·13.7
REB
7.3·7.0
AST
2.8·1.7
Starters
Collin MalcolmVSJaylen Nowell
PTS
12.5·12.0
REB
6.3·2.7
AST
2.0·2.3
Starters
Matthew StrazelVSAnthony Brown
PTS
11.8·9.7
REB
1.8·2.7
AST
4.8·2.3
Starters
Bruno FernandoVSConor Morgan
PTS
9.0·5.3
REB
7.3·3.3
AST
1.3·0.7
Starters
David MutafVSBerk Ugurlu
PTS
3.0·5.3
REB
0.5·1.3
AST
1.0·4.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Anadolu Efes

Likely starting five

  1. Collin Malcolm
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    12.5
  2. Dario Saric
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    14.0
  3. Bruno Fernando
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    9.0
  4. Matthew Strazel
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    11.8
  5. David Mutaf
    Started 2 of last 4
    PPG
    3.0
Missed the last game
Away
Besiktas

Likely starting five

  1. Conor Morgan
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.3
  2. Anthony Brown
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    9.7
  3. Jaylen Nowell
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    12.0
  4. Ante Zizic
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    13.7
  5. Berk Ugurlu
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    5.3
Full lineups and bench

Recent form

Anadolu Efes

2–3

2–4, 13th in

Besiktas

3–2

3–3, 11th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day