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Penn State vs Mercyhurst Lakers result

HomePenn State3–1, 12th in Big TenAwayMercyhurst Lakers1–3, 7th in Northeast
72–57Final
91%9%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Penn State to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
84–65
Margin
+19
Result
72–57

Our lines

Point spread
+20.5Mercyhurst Lakers to cover · 55%
Total points
147.5Over · 54% · projected 151.4
Fair odds
1.10Penn State · Mercyhurst Lakers 11.48

Who will win Penn State vs Mercyhurst Lakers?

Our model makes Penn State 91% favourites at home against Mercyhurst Lakers and projects a 84–65 final.

Penn State have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 90.0 and allowing 77.3 points a game over that stretch. Mercyhurst Lakers have won 1 of their last 3, scoring 62.7 and allowing 70.3 points a game over that stretch.

Penn State sit 14th in the Big Ten at 2–1, while Mercyhurst Lakers sit 5th in the Northeast at 1–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Penn State rate -0.4 and Mercyhurst Lakers -2.7 points per game against an average side, a 2.2-point edge to Penn State. Home court is worth about 13.1 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Penn State at 94% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Penn State -20.5 covers 45% of the time on our numbers, and the over 147.5 lands 54% against a projected 151.4 points.

Penn State to win (91%). Projected score: 84–65.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Penn State86%94%91%1.10
Winner (incl. overtime)Mercyhurst Lakers14%6%9%11.48
Point spreadPenn State -20.536%51%45%2.21
Point spreadMercyhurst Lakers +20.564%49%55%1.82
Total pointsOver 147.560%51%54%1.84
Total pointsUnder 147.540%49%46%2.19
1st half spreadPenn State -9.551%–51%1.96
1st half spreadMercyhurst Lakers +9.549%–49%2.05
1st half total pointsOver 70.552%–52%1.93
1st half total pointsUnder 70.548%–48%2.07

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Penn StateBefore tip-offMercyhurst Lakers
  • 2–1Season record1–2
  • 2–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 2–1Last 10 games1–2
  • L1Current streakW1
  • 90.0Points per game62.7
  • 77.3Points allowed per game70.3
  • +12.7Average margin−7.6
  • 3 daysRest before this game4 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • −0.4Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−2.7
  • +1.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−3.2
  • −2.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.5
  • +13.1Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Penn State0.00.0–0.0+13.346.3–33.00.00.0–0.0−0.643.7–44.3
Mercyhurst Lakers0.00.0–0.0−6.027.0–33.00.00.0–0.0−1.635.7–37.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

Penn State

2–1

3–1, 12th in Big Ten

Mercyhurst Lakers

1–2

1–3, 7th in Northeast

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day