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IPFW vs Western Michigan result

HomeIPFW1–2, 9th in Horizon LeagueAwayWestern Michigan3–1, 5th in Mid-American
59–81Final
42%58%
Win probability

Our pick

Pick landed
Western Michigan to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
74–77
Margin
+3
Result
59–81

Our lines

Point spread
+3.5IPFW to cover · 65%
Total points
151.5Under · 51% · projected 148.8
Fair odds
1.72Western Michigan · IPFW 2.39

Who will win IPFW vs Western Michigan?

Our model makes Western Michigan 58% favourites on the road against IPFW and projects a 77–74 final.

IPFW have won 1 of their last 2, scoring 87.0 and allowing 71.5 points a game over that stretch. Western Michigan have won 2 of their last 3, scoring 78.3 and allowing 61.3 points a game over that stretch.

IPFW sit 3rd in the Horizon League at 1–1, while Western Michigan sit 6th in the Mid-American at 2–1.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Western Michigan at 60% across 8 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Western Michigan -3.5 covers 35% of the time on our numbers, and the under 151.5 lands 51% against a projected 148.8 points.

Western Michigan to win (58%). Projected score: 77–74. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)IPFW81%40%42%2.39
Winner (incl. overtime)Western Michigan19%60%58%1.72
Point spreadIPFW +3.587%50%65%1.55
Point spreadWestern Michigan -3.513%50%35%2.82
Total pointsOver 151.543%53%49%2.04
Total pointsUnder 151.557%47%51%1.96
1st half spreadIPFW +1.550%–50%2.00
1st half spreadWestern Michigan -1.550%–50%2.00
1st half total pointsOver 71.551%–51%1.95
1st half total pointsUnder 71.549%–49%2.05

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

IPFWBefore tip-offWestern Michigan
  • 1–1Season record2–1
  • 1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 1–1Last 10 games2–1
  • W1Current streakW2
  • 87.0Points per game78.3
  • 71.5Points allowed per game61.3
  • +15.5Average margin+17.0
  • 4 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
IPFW0.00.0–0.0+17.548.5–31.00.00.0–0.0−2.038.5–40.5
Western Michigan0.00.0–0.0+8.736.7–28.00.00.0–0.0+8.441.7–33.3

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Recent form

IPFW

1–1

1–2, 9th in Horizon League

Western Michigan

2–1

3–1, 5th in Mid-American

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Other games that day