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Murcia vs Leyma Coruna prediction

HomeMurcia1–3, 16th in AwayLeyma Coruna1–3, 17th in
Tip-off
72%28%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Murcia to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
97–91
Margin
+6

Who will win Murcia vs Leyma Coruna?

Murcia are the pick to win at home against Leyma Coruna with a 72% probability, projected to finish 97–91.

Both teams arrive with identical 1–3 records, but the table separates them by just one place: Murcia sit 16th and Leyma Coruna 17th. Recent form has been rough on both sides, with each winning only 1 of their last 4 games. The difference lies in how they have lost: Murcia have allowed 96.0 points a game over that stretch, while Leyma Coruna have conceded 105.5, a gap that speaks to the defensive fragility the visitors bring into this one.

Murcia's scoring average of 86.8 over the last four is modest, but it comes against a Leyma Coruna defense that has been leaking points at a much higher rate. The visitors have managed 91.5 points a game themselves, so they can score, yet the 105.5 they give up suggests they will struggle to get stops on the road. Murcia's home advantage is a real factor here, and the model's adjusted efficiency numbers back that up: Murcia rate -2.9 against an average side, Leyma Coruna -4.6, a 1.7-point edge that home court amplifies.

Murcia to win (72%), projected score 97–91.

Tale of the tape

MurciaBefore tip-offLeyma Coruna
  • 1–3Season record1–3
  • 1–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–2
  • 1–3Last 10 games1–3
  • L2Current streakL2
  • 86.8Points per game91.5
  • 96.0Points allowed per game105.5
  • −9.2Average margin−14.0
  • 5 daysRest before this game5 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • 34.7Rebounds per game32.3
  • 14.3Assists per game18.3
  • 10.3Three-pointers made per game9.3
  • 51.7Bench points per game43.7
  • −2.9Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−4.6
  • −1.8AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−1.0
  • −1.1DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−3.6
  • +4.5Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Murcia−5.015.3–20.3−4.021.8–25.8−0.522.8–23.3+0.227.0–26.8
Leyma Coruna−2.820.0–22.8−5.522.3–27.8+3.526.3–22.8−10.019.8–29.8

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Michael ForrestMurciaVSAlonzo VergeLeyma Coruna

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 17.0Points17.3
  • 1.3Rebounds2.3
  • 2.3Assists5.0
  • 3.3Three-pointers made1.3
  • 24.7Minutes24.1

Team leaders

MurciaThis seasonLeyma Coruna

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
S. BoumVSAlonzo Verge
PTS
11.5·17.3
REB
2.0·2.3
AST
3.0·5.0
Starters
Jonah RadebaughVSLukas Uleckas
PTS
8.3·12.7
REB
2.0·7.3
AST
2.0·0.7
Starters
Emanuel CateVSKarlis Silins
PTS
7.0·9.3
REB
4.7·2.3
AST
1.7·0.7
Starters
Sander RaiesteVSG. Conditt
PTS
4.0·7.3
REB
6.0·4.0
AST
0.0·1.3
Starters
Toni NakicVSP. Jorgensen
PTS
2.5·5.3
REB
3.5·1.3
AST
0.5·1.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Murcia

Likely starting five

  1. S. Boum
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    11.5
  2. Jonah Radebaugh
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    8.3
  3. Emanuel Cate
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    7.0
  4. Sander Raieste
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    4.0
  5. Toni Nakic
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    2.5
Away
Leyma Coruna

Likely starting five

  1. Lukas Uleckas
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    12.7
  2. Alonzo Verge
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    17.3
  3. G. Conditt
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    7.3
  4. Karlis Silins
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    9.3
  5. P. Jorgensen
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    5.3
Full lineups and bench
Photo credits (10)

Dylan Ennis: Sakhalinio, CC BY-SA 4.0; Sander Raieste: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Lukas Uleckas: Gitana K, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tomas Dimsa: Augustas Didžgalvis, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jonah Radebaugh: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Emanuel Cate: FCBQ, Public domain; Jean-Marc Pansa: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Marcis Steinbergs: FCBQ, Public domain; Dino Radoncic: Diario de Madrid, CC BY 4.0; Didac Cuevas: Carla Sam, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Murcia

1–3

1–3, 16th in

Leyma Coruna

1–3

1–3, 17th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day