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Gargzdai vs Lietkabelis prediction

HomeGargzdaiAwayLietkabelis3–3, 6th in
Tip-off
60%40%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Gargzdai to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
85–82
Margin
+3

Who will win Gargzdai vs Lietkabelis?

Gargzdai are the pick at 60% to beat Lietkabelis, with a projected score of 85–82.

Gargzdai come into this one on a strong run, having won 4 of their last 5 while putting up 94.8 points a game and conceding 88.2 over that stretch. Lietkabelis have been far less convincing, winning 2 of their last 5 and managing just 73.6 points a game while allowing 81.0. That gap in recent output is the first thing that points toward the home side.

The efficiency numbers back up the form. Gargzdai rate +1.3 points per game against an average side on adjusted efficiency, while Lietkabelis sit at -2.3, a 3.6-point edge to the hosts before home court is even considered. Home court is worth about 3.3 points in this competition, which stacks further advantage on Gargzdai's side of the ledger.

The market is not quite as bullish as the model, but it lands on the same winner: once the bookmaker margin is removed, 6 bookmakers price Gargzdai at 54%, against the 60% the numbers give them. That makes Gargzdai a clear favourite in the projections without being an overwhelming one, and it leaves Lietkabelis with a real, if narrower, path to an upset.

Gargzdai to win (60%). Projected score: 85–82.

Tale of the tape

GargzdaiBefore tip-offLietkabelis
  • 4–2Season record3–3
  • 2–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road1–2
  • 4–2Last 10 games3–3
  • L1Current streakW1
  • 91.8Points per game75.3
  • 89.8Points allowed per game81.2
  • +2.0Average margin−5.9
  • 5 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days2
  • 33.7Rebounds per game29.5
  • 21.3Assists per game16.5
  • 9.3Three-pointers made per game8.8
  • 35.0Bench points per game34.3
  • +1.3Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−2.3
  • +3.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−3.1
  • −2.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.8
  • +3.3Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Gargzdai−4.721.5–26.2−0.521.5–22.0−0.723.5–24.2+7.825.3–17.5
Lietkabelis−3.018.5–21.5+1.018.2–17.2+0.321.8–21.5−4.216.8–21.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Evaldas SaulysGargzdaiVSIvan FevrierLietkabelis

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 16.7Points13.5
  • 2.3Rebounds4.5
  • 1.7Assists0.3
  • 3.7Three-pointers made1.8
  • 27.0Minutes23.8

Team leaders

GargzdaiThis seasonLietkabelis

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (1 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Evaldas SaulysVSIvan Fevrier
PTS
16.7·13.5
REB
2.3·4.5
AST
1.7·0.3
Starters
J. CarlosVSA. Schumacher
PTS
16.3·11.3
REB
3.7·1.8
AST
7.3·3.5
Starters
B. KrikkeVSOgnjen Jaramaz
PTS
14.0·9.8
REB
4.3·3.8
AST
0.3·4.3
Starters
L. WilsonVSDaniel Baslyk
PTS
10.0·4.0
REB
6.7·2.3
AST
0.3·0.5
Starters
Kristupas LesciauskasVSM. Ilic
PTS
3.3·4.0
REB
1.0·3.3
AST
0.7·0.8

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Gargzdai

Likely starting five

  1. Evaldas Saulys
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    16.7
  2. J. Carlos
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    16.3
  3. L. Wilson
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    10.0
  4. B. Krikke
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    14.0
  5. Kristupas Lesciauskas
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    3.3
Away
Lietkabelis

Likely starting five

  1. Ognjen Jaramaz
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    9.8
  2. A. Schumacher
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    11.3
  3. Ivan Fevrier
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    13.5
  4. Daniel Baslyk
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    4.0
  5. M. Ilic
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    4.0
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages

Photo credits: Ognjen Jaramaz: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Gabrielius Maldunas: Gabas12, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Gargzdai

4–1

Lietkabelis

2–3

3–3, 6th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day