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GTK Gliwice vs Torun prediction

HomeGTK Gliwice1–2, 11th in AwayTorun1–2, 10th in
Tip-off
50%50%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Torun to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
87–88
Margin
+1

Who will win GTK Gliwice vs Torun?

Torun are the narrow pick at 50% on the road against GTK Gliwice, with a projected 88–87 final.

Neither side arrives in good shape: GTK Gliwice have won 1 of their last 3 and Torun have won 1 of their last 3, and the table reflects that with GTK Gliwice 11th at 1–2 and Torun 10th at 1–2. The scoring profiles over that stretch differ sharply, though. GTK Gliwice have put up 76.3 points a game while allowing 82.3, whereas Torun have scored 92.7 and conceded 95.7, so the visitors play at a far looser tempo and give plenty back at the other end.

Adjusted efficiency narrows the gap to almost nothing: GTK Gliwice rate -1.4 points per game against an average side and Torun -0.5, a 0.9-point edge to Torun. That edge is smaller than the roughly 1.7 points home court is worth in this competition, which is why the home side's advantage largely cancels out Torun's slightly better rating. The result is a game the model treats as essentially even.

The market reads it the same way. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Torun are priced at 52% across 4 bookmakers, close to the model's own figure. With the two teams separated by so little on efficiency and form, the projected 88–87 scoreline fits a game that could turn on a single possession rather than any clear structural edge for either side.

The lean toward Torun is thin enough that it should be handled with care. GTK Gliwice's home court keeps them live despite the weaker efficiency number, and Torun's high-scoring, high-conceding profile makes the outcome less predictable than the ratings alone suggest. This is a coin-flip game in the truest sense.

Torun to win (50%), with a projected score of 88–87.

Tale of the tape

GTK GliwiceBefore tip-offTorun
  • 1–2Season record1–2
  • 0–2Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 1–2Last 10 games1–2
  • L1Current streakW1
  • 76.3Points per game92.7
  • 82.3Points allowed per game95.7
  • −6.0Average margin−3.0
  • 5 daysRest before this game6 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days0
  • 30.7Rebounds per game27.0
  • 14.7Assists per game16.3
  • 9.3Three-pointers made per game8.3
  • 30.7Bench points per game30.7
  • −1.4Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.5
  • −2.2AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+2.2
  • +0.8DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−2.7
  • +1.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
GTK Gliwice+2.023.0–21.0+1.319.0–17.7−6.318.0–24.3−3.016.3–19.3
Torun+0.621.3–20.7−1.627.7–29.3+0.324.0–23.7−2.319.7–22.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

S. MiguelGTK GliwiceVSL. SakotaTorun

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 13.7Points22.3
  • 3.3Rebounds4.0
  • 4.3Assists4.7
  • 1.7Three-pointers made1.7
  • 26.3Minutes29.4

Team leaders

GTK GliwiceThis seasonTorun

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (3 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Kacper GordonVSL. Sakota
PTS
12.7·22.3
REB
2.0·4.0
AST
3.0·4.7
Starters
Eric NottageVSV. Gaddefors
PTS
12.3·12.0
REB
3.3·5.0
AST
2.7·2.0
Starters
B. SchwiegerVSDamian Kulig
PTS
8.5·11.0
REB
3.5·6.7
AST
0.5·2.7
Starters
M. SuskavcevicVSIsaiah Cousins
PTS
7.7·9.3
REB
9.0·4.3
AST
0.0·3.7
Starters
A. Luis SmithVSBen Vander
PTS
7.0·5.7
REB
5.0·4.7
AST
1.3·0.7

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
GTK Gliwice

Likely starting five

  1. Eric Nottage
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    12.3
  2. M. Suskavcevic
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    7.7
  3. A. Luis Smith
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    7.0
  4. B. Schwieger
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    8.5
  5. Kacper Gordon
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    12.7
Away
Torun

Likely starting five

  1. L. Sakota
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    22.3
  2. Isaiah Cousins
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    9.3
  3. Ben Vander
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.7
  4. Damian Kulig
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    11.0
  5. V. Gaddefors
    Started 2 of last 3
    PPG
    12.0
Full lineups and bench

Photo credits: Damian Kulig: Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at; Isaiah Cousins: Timan, CC BY-SA 4.0; Raymond Cowels: SD Dirk, CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

GTK Gliwice

1–2

1–2, 11th in

Torun

1–2

1–2, 10th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day