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Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons prediction

HomeMiami Heat3–2, 7th in Eastern ConferenceAwayDetroit Pistons3–1, 5th in Eastern Conference
26–41Q2 · 1'
51%49%
Win probability
Live · updates automatically
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Our pick

Toss-up
Miami Heat to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
118–117
Margin
+1

Our lines

Point spread
+1Miami Heat to cover · 53%
Total points
236Under · 53% · projected 232.2
Fair odds
1.98Miami Heat · Detroit Pistons 2.02

Who will win Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons?

Our model makes Miami Heat 51% favourites at home against Detroit Pistons and projects a 118–117 final.

Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 123.4 and allowing 127.6 points a game over that stretch. Detroit Pistons have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 119.0 and allowing 113.0 points a game over that stretch.

Miami Heat sit 7th in the Eastern Conference at 3–2, while Detroit Pistons sit 5th in the Eastern Conference at 3–1.

On adjusted efficiency, Miami Heat rate -2 and Detroit Pistons +1.1 points per game against an average side, a 3.2-point edge to Detroit Pistons. Home court is worth about 3.7 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Miami Heat at 50% across 3 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Miami Heat +1 covers 53% of the time on our numbers, and the under 236 lands 53% against a projected 232.2 points.

Miami Heat to win (51%). Projected score: 118–117. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Miami Heat52%50%51%1.98
Winner (incl. overtime)Detroit Pistons48%50%49%2.02
Point spreadMiami Heat +155%51%53%1.90
Point spreadDetroit Pistons -145%49%47%2.11
Total pointsOver 23641%50%47%2.14
Total pointsUnder 23659%50%53%1.88

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Miami HeatBefore tip-offDetroit Pistons
  • 0–1Season record1–0
  • 0–1Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–0
  • 0–1Last 10 games1–0
  • L1Current streakW1
  • 106.0Points per game121.0
  • 131.0Points allowed per game113.0
  • −25.0Average margin+8.0
  • 1 dayRest before this game2 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • 34.0Rebounds per game49.0
  • 25.0Assists per game27.0
  • 8.0Three-pointers made per game15.0
  • 24.0Bench points per game39.0
  • −2.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+1.1
  • +0.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.9
  • −2.5DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.2
  • +3.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 1 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Miami Heat−2.032.0–34.0−8.027.0–35.0−8.022.0–30.0−7.025.0–32.0
Detroit Pistons−1.027.0–28.0−12.018.0–30.0+7.037.0–30.0+14.039.0–25.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Giannis AntetokounmpoForward · Miami HeatVSCade CunninghamGuard · Detroit Pistons

Leading scorers · averages over the last 1 games

  • 35.0Points22.0
  • 6.0Rebounds4.0
  • 1.0Assists8.0
  • 0.0Three-pointers made1.0
  • 29.8Minutes35.3

Team leaders

Miami HeatThis seasonDetroit Pistons

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (1 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Guards
Davion MitchellVSCade Cunningham
PTS
11.0·22.0
REB
0.0·4.0
AST
10.0·8.0
Guards
Klay ThompsonVSDuncan Robinson
PTS
10.0·21.0
REB
1.0·2.0
AST
0.0·2.0
Forwards
Giannis AntetokounmpoVSAusar Thompson
PTS
35.0·11.0
REB
6.0·11.0
AST
1.0·5.0
Forwards
Andrew WigginsVSJohn Collins
PTS
11.0·6.0
REB
2.0·5.0
AST
1.0·1.0
Centres
Bam AdebayoVSJalen Duren
PTS
15.0·22.0
REB
7.0·9.0
AST
4.0·1.0

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Miami Heat

Likely starting five

  1. Davion Mitchell
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    11.0
  2. Bam Adebayo
    Center · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    15.0
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    35.0
  4. Andrew Wiggins
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    11.0
  5. Klay Thompson
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    10.0
Away
Detroit Pistons

Likely starting five

  1. Cade Cunningham
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    22.0
  2. Ausar Thompson
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    11.0
  3. Jalen Duren
    Center · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    22.0
  4. Duncan Robinson
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    21.0
  5. John Collins
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    6.0
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (8)

Cade Cunningham: Chensiyuan, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jalen Duren: Pikraken, CC BY 4.0; Ausar Thompson: Pikraken, CC0; Duncan Robinson: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; R. Conwell: Governor Eric Holcomb, Public domain; Isaiah Joe: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0; Kevin Huerter: Alexander Jonesi, CC BY-SA 2.0; Paul Reed: PhilipVan, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Miami Heat

2–3

3–2, 7th in Eastern Conference

Detroit Pistons

4–1

3–1, 5th in Eastern Conference

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day