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Taurage vs Nevezis prediction

HomeTaurage1–5, 9th in AwayNevezis0–5, 10th in
Tip-off
65%35%
Win probability

Our pick

Lean
Taurage to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
85–81
Margin
+4

Who will win Taurage vs Nevezis?

Taurage are the pick to win at 65%, with a projected score of 85–81.

Both teams arrive on five-game losing runs, so the form book offers little comfort to either side. Taurage have scored 77.0 and allowed 91.0 points a game across that stretch, while Nevezis have managed 70.4 and conceded 84.2. The table reflects the same picture: Taurage sit 9th at 1–5 and Nevezis 10th at 0–5, separated by a single win.

Adjusted efficiency makes this a near coin-flip on neutral ground, with Taurage at -4 and Nevezis at -4.1 points per game against an average side, a 0.1-point edge to the hosts. What widens the gap is home court, worth about 3.3 points in this competition. That combination is why the model settles on Taurage rather than Nevezis despite the thin efficiency difference.

The market reads the game the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, Taurage are priced at 65%, matching the model's number. The projected 85–81 scoreline points to a close, relatively low-scoring contest rather than a blowout. Nevezis' case rests on the fact that the efficiency gap is so small that the home-court advantage is doing most of the work in the forecast.

Taurage to win at 65%, with a projected score of 85–81.

Tale of the tape

TaurageBefore tip-offNevezis
  • 1–5Season record0–5
  • 1–2Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–3
  • 1–5Last 10 games0–5
  • L5Current streakL5
  • 80.0Points per game70.4
  • 90.8Points allowed per game84.2
  • −10.8Average margin−13.8
  • 2 daysRest before this game3 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days2
  • 30.3Rebounds per game30.3
  • 18.8Assists per game18.3
  • 9.5Three-pointers made per game7.0
  • 28.3Bench points per game39.3
  • −4.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−4.1
  • −1.4AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−4.0
  • −2.5DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−0.1
  • +3.3Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 4 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Taurage+0.421.7–21.3−0.618.7–19.3−4.320.2–24.5−7.017.2–24.2
Nevezis−4.418.8–23.2−6.614.2–20.8+0.419.8–19.4−3.217.6–20.8

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

J. BlackmonTaurageVSD. AndrewsNevezis

Leading scorers · averages over the last 4 games

  • 12.5Points19.5
  • 1.3Rebounds2.8
  • 2.3Assists4.0
  • 2.5Three-pointers made3.0
  • 21.4Minutes30.2

Team leaders

TaurageThis seasonNevezis

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (1 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Nojus MineikisVSD. Andrews
PTS
10.8·19.5
REB
4.8·2.8
AST
0.5·4.0
Starters
Vaidas KariniauskasVSA. Gray
PTS
10.0·11.5
REB
2.3·3.8
AST
6.3·0.3
Starters
Benas GriciunasVSPaulius Petrilevicius
PTS
9.8·11.3
REB
6.3·5.0
AST
1.5·1.3
Starters
D. JacksonVSJonas Zakas
PTS
8.8·6.5
REB
1.3·2.5
AST
3.0·1.8
Starters
Andrii VoinalovychVSN. Bukauskas
PTS
8.5·4.3
REB
4.3·2.8
AST
0.8·4.3

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Taurage

Likely starting five

  1. Nojus Mineikis
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    10.8
  2. Andrii Voinalovych
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    8.5
  3. D. Jackson
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    8.8
  4. Benas Griciunas
    Started 4 of last 4
    PPG
    9.8
  5. Vaidas Kariniauskas
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    10.0
Away
Nevezis

Likely starting five

  1. Jonas Zakas
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    6.5
  2. N. Bukauskas
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    4.3
  3. Paulius Petrilevicius
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    11.3
  4. A. Gray
    Started 3 of last 4
    PPG
    11.5
  5. D. Andrews
    Started 2 of last 4
    PPG
    19.5
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages

Photo credits: Vaidas Kariniauskas: Augustas Didžgalvis, CC BY-SA 4.0; Paulius Petrilevicius: Dudek1337, CC BY-SA 4.0; Haris Bratanovic: Rikieboy1, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jacob Wiley: crop by CalDoesIt, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Taurage

0–5

1–5, 9th in

Nevezis

0–5

0–5, 10th in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day