Roanne vs Paris prediction

Paris are the pick at 63%, with the model projecting an 87–84 win on the road against Roanne.

Paris arrive as the form side, having won all four of their recent games while scoring 92.3 points a game and allowing 83.3 over that stretch. Roanne have split their last four, putting up 80.3 and conceding 82.5. That gap in scoring output is the clearest reason the model leans toward the visitors, even with Roanne at home.

The table tells a similar story: Paris sit 3rd at 4–0, while Roanne are 6th at 2–2. On adjusted efficiency, Roanne rate 0 and Paris +2.5 points per game against an average side, a 2.4-point edge to Paris. Home court is worth about 4.1 points in this competition, which keeps Roanne close but does not flip the balance.

The market has reached the same conclusion. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Paris are priced at 71% across 6 bookmakers, well above our 63% figure. That makes Paris the clear favourite in the eyes of the books, though the model is a touch more cautious about how comfortably the win arrives.

The projected 87–84 scoreline reflects a game that stays within reach for Roanne. Paris have the stronger form and the better efficiency numbers, but the home-court allowance of about 4.1 points gives Roanne a path to keep it tight. The model still lands on the visitors, at 63%.

Paris to win (63%), with a projected score of 87–84.