Lyon-Villeurbanne vs Nancy Prediction & Pick

Who will win Lyon-Villeurbanne vs Nancy?

Lyon-Villeurbanne are the pick at home against Nancy, with an 83% win probability and a projected 88–79 final.

Lyon-Villeurbanne arrive unbeaten at 4–0 and 2nd in LNB Élite, while Nancy are 13th at 1–3. The form line is just as lopsided: Lyon-Villeurbanne have taken all four of their last four, scoring 90.0 and allowing 80.3 points a game over that stretch, whereas Nancy have won 1 of their last 4, scoring 74.0 and allowing 84.0. That gap in recent output frames the matchup before any adjustment is applied.

Adjusted efficiency sharpens the picture. Lyon-Villeurbanne rate +3.2 points per game against an average side and Nancy -3.2, a 6.4-point edge to Lyon-Villeurbanne, and home court is worth about 4 points in this competition. Put together, those factors explain why the model lands on a nine-point margin and why the market, once the bookmaker margin is removed, prices Lyon-Villeurbanne at 82% across 8 bookmakers — close to our own 83%.

Nancy's case rests on the possibility that the efficiency gap is overstated by recent results rather than on anything in the table. The visitors have scored 74.0 a game over their last 4, and the model still gives them a projected 79, so they are expected to be competitive in stretches rather than blown out. Still, the combination of form, table position and the home-court adjustment leaves little room for the underdog to be favoured anywhere but in a single-game sense.

Lyon-Villeurbanne to win (83%), projected score 88–79.

Tale of the tape

Lyon-VilleurbanneBefore tip-offNancy

4–0Season record1–3
1–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
4–0Last 10 games1–3
W4Current streakW1
90.0Points per game74.0
80.3Points allowed per game84.0
+9.7Average margin−10.0
1 dayRest before this game4 days
1Games in the last 7 days1
24.8Rebounds per game36.8
20.0Assists per game15.8
9.2Three-pointers made per game10.0
35.4Bench points per game40.0
+3.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−3.2
+1.7AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−3.3
+1.6DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.1
+4.0Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 4 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Lyon-Villeurbanne	+1.022.5–21.5	+5.324.3–19.0	−0.521.5–22.0	+3.219.0–15.8
Nancy	−4.019.8–23.8	−0.720.3–21.0	−1.716.8–18.5	−3.517.3–20.8