Saint Quentin vs Dijon prediction

Dijon are the pick on the road against Saint Quentin, with a 67% win probability and a projected 90–86 score.

Dijon arrive as the form team in this matchup, having won 4 of their last 4 while scoring 92.5 and allowing just 78.0 points a game over that stretch. Saint Quentin have managed only 1 win in their last 4, and their defensive numbers are the problem: 98.8 points allowed per game. That gap at both ends of the floor is the foundation of Dijon's case on the road.

The table tells the same story. Dijon sit 1st at 4–0, while Saint Quentin are 15th at 1–3. On adjusted efficiency, Saint Quentin rate -3 and Dijon +3.9 points per game against an average side, a 6.9-point edge to Dijon. Home court is worth about 4.1 points in this competition, which narrows but does not erase that advantage.

The market has reached a similar conclusion. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, it prices Dijon at 69% across 9 bookmakers, close to our 67% figure. Saint Quentin's home floor gives them a case, but the ratings and recent results both point the same direction.

The projected score of 90–86 reflects a game Dijon control without running away with it. Saint Quentin's scoring over their last four, 89.3 points a game, keeps them within reach, but their 98.8 points allowed suggests Dijon can find the points needed to close it out.

Dijon to win (67%), with a projected score of 90–86.