Paris vs Valencia prediction
Our pick
LeanPrediction updated
- Predicted score
- 90–93
- Margin
- +3
Who will win Paris vs Valencia?
Valencia are the pick on the road against Paris, with a 62% win probability and a projected 93–90 score.
Valencia carry a 62% win chance into Paris, and the underlying numbers explain why. Their adjusted efficiency sits at +2 points per game against an average side, while Paris rate -2.7, a 4.7-point edge before home court is applied. Home court is worth about 2.4 points in this competition, so even after that adjustment the visitors retain a clear advantage. The market has reached the same conclusion: across 6 bookmakers, Valencia price at 63% once the margin is removed.
The form and the table point in the same direction. Paris have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 86.4 and allowing 90.8 points a game over that stretch, and they sit 18th at 1–5. Valencia have won 3 of their last 5, putting up 98.8 while allowing 91.0, and they sit 4th at 4–2. Paris are being outscored over their recent run; Valencia are winning theirs despite a similarly leaky defensive record.
Valencia to win (62%). Projected score: 93–90.
Tale of the tape
- 1–5Season record4–2
- 1–3Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road2–0
- 1–5Last 10 games4–2
- L3Current streakL2
- 84.0Points per game98.3
- 90.8Points allowed per game91.5
- −6.8Average margin+6.8
- 4 daysRest before this game4 days
- 1Games in the last 7 days1
- 36.0Rebounds per game30.8
- 22.3Assists per game20.3
- 12.3Three-pointers made per game11.3
- 29.3Bench points per game53.8
- −2.7Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+2.0
- −0.5AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+3.6
- −2.2DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents−1.6
- +2.4Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–
Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.
Quarter by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | −2.719.5–22.2 | −2.818.7–21.5 | −0.523.2–23.7 | −0.822.7–23.5 |
| Valencia | +3.826.3–22.5 | +3.025.3–22.3 | +3.524.5–21.0 | −2.721.0–23.7 |
Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.
Key matchup
Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games
- 24.3Points14.0
- 1.7Rebounds1.8
- 5.7Assists5.0
- 5.7Three-pointers made0.5
- 27.8Minutes23.6
Team leaders
- Points · PPG
- Rebounds · RPG
- Assists · APG
- Three-pointers made · 3PM
Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.
Key battles
Player projectionsPro
Likely lineups
Likely starting five
- Etienne T.Started 3 of last 3
- PPG
- 24.3
- RPG
- 1.7
- APG
- 5.7
- Sebastian HerreraStarted 3 of last 3
- PPG
- 12.0
- RPG
- 1.3
- APG
- 0.7
- Hommes D.Started 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 7.3
- RPG
- 2.3
- APG
- 2.7
- Mouhamed FayeStarted 2 of last 3
- PPG
- 8.0
- RPG
- 6.7
- APG
- 2.0
- Terry TarpeyStarted 1 of last 3
- PPG
- 4.3
- RPG
- 5.0
- APG
- 1.0
Likely starting five
- Kameron TaylorStarted 4 of last 4
- PPG
- 10.8
- RPG
- 4.5
- APG
- 2.5
- T.J. ShortsStarted 4 of last 4
- PPG
- 14.0
- RPG
- 1.8
- APG
- 5.0
- Dylan OsetkowskiStarted 4 of last 4
- PPG
- 4.8
- RPG
- 3.3
- APG
- 1.3
- Neal SakoStarted 4 of last 4
- PPG
- 4.5
- RPG
- 4.5
- APG
- 0.8
- Armoni BrooksStarted 3 of last 4
- PPG
- 13.3
- RPG
- 3.0
- APG
- 1.5
Recent form
Paris
1–41–5, 18th in
- @ Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet81–90
- vs Virtus Bologna94–96
- vs Lyon-Villeurbanne96–98
- vs Zalgiris Kaunas82–78
- vs Partizan Mozzart Bet79–92
Valencia
3–24–2, 5th in
- vs Maccabi Tel Aviv88–91
- vs Olympiacos97–102
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv93–82
- @ Lyon-Villeurbanne105–92
- vs Baskonia111–88
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.