Szczecin vs Lublin prediction

Szczecin are the clear pick at home against Lublin, winning 73% of the time with a projected 87–81 scoreline.

Szczecin come into this one ninth in Polska Liga Koszykówki at 2–1, and their recent run backs that standing up: two wins in three games while averaging 88.0 points scored and 82.7 conceded. Lublin are 13th at 1–2 and have taken just one of their last three, putting up 77.3 a game and giving back 84.7 over the same stretch. That gap in scoring output is the first thing that separates the two sides here.

The efficiency numbers point the same way. Against an average opponent, Szczecin rate +0.9 points per game and Lublin -1.4, so the home side holds a 2.3-point edge before venue is even considered. Add roughly 1.7 points for playing at home in this competition and the model's 73% for Szczecin looks well grounded rather than generous. Lublin's case rests on the fact that a single-digit efficiency gap is not enormous, and their recent scoring allowance of 84.7 suggests they can stay in touch if Szczecin's offence cools.

The market has reached essentially the same conclusion. Across 6 bookmakers, once the margin is stripped out, Szczecin are priced at 77%, which sits close to our 73% and confirms the home side as the deserved favourite. The table and the form line both favour Szczecin; Lublin's best route is a tighter, lower-scoring game than the projection suggests.

Our model makes Szczecin 73% favourites at home against Lublin and projects a 87–81 final.

Szczecin to win (73%). Projected score: 87–81.