EuroLeague predictions for Wednesday 28 October

A four-game EuroLeague schedule gets underway on Wednesday 28 October, beginning at 17:30 UTC when Besiktas take on Olympiacos. Backed by a 68% win probability, Hapoel Tel Aviv represent the analytical model's clearest preference across the evening card.

Elsewhere, the matchup between Lyon-Villeurbanne and Partizan Mozzart Bet shapes up as an absolute toss-up, with the French hosts afforded just a 51% chance. The scoreboard is expected to see the most action when Hapoel Tel Aviv face Anadolu Efes, where the line stands at 172.5 points. Heading into the slate, the algorithm has identified 10 of 16 EuroLeague winners this season (63%), with every result is public.

EuroLeague picks at a glance

Besiktas vs Olympiacos prediction

Superior efficiency tilts this meeting toward Olympiacos, who hold a +3.1 adjusted rating against an average opponent compared to Besiktas at -0.9. That four-point quality gap outweighs the roughly two points granted for home court, pointing the projection toward an 88–86 away triumph at a 56% win likelihood.

Recent form also leans toward the visitors, with Olympiacos claiming three wins across their previous five contests while putting up 90.2 points and conceding 84.6. Besiktas, by contrast, dropped three of their last five outings while their defence surrendered 91.0 points per contest alongside an 86.2 scoring average.

The current tournament standings reflect that gap: the Greek powerhouse holds fourth place with a 5–2 record, whereas Besiktas occupy 14th place having gone 3–4. The consensus across nine sportsbooks lines up closely with the algorithm, assessing Olympiacos as a 55% proposition after stripping the bookmaker margin.

With a projected outcome of 88–86 delivering 174 total points, the forecast trends toward the over against the 170.5 benchmark at 59%. Besiktas get +1.5 on the spread, but Olympiacos retain a 52% edge to beat the handicap in this matchup at TBF Development Center - Main court.

• Win probability: Besiktas 44%, Olympiacos 56%
• Projected score: Besiktas 86, Olympiacos 88
• Spread: Besiktas +1.5. The model has Olympiacos covering 52% of the time.
• Total: 170.5 points, with the over at 59%. Our projected total is 174.
• Besiktas: 14th, 3–4
• Olympiacos: 4th, 5–2
• Leading scorers: Jaylen Nowell (Besiktas, 14.0 points a game) and Aleksandar Vezenkov (Olympiacos, 18.7 points a game)

Our pick: Olympiacos to win (56%). Projected score: 88–86. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups

Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Anadolu Efes prediction

A strong 68% win rate marks Hapoel Tel Aviv as the most convincing selection of Wednesday's slate. That confidence stems from a notable efficiency contrast, where the hosts hold a +2.3 adjusted rating to an even 0 from Anadolu Efes, giving them a 2.3-point baseline advantage that widens once the standard two-point home-court bonus is factored in.

Momentum firmly belongs to the home squad at Arena Botevgrad, as Hapoel Tel Aviv produced four wins across their last five matches behind a potent offense delivering 93.0 points while giving up 87.0. Anadolu Efes managed only two victories in that same five-game span, scoring 81.0 and yielding 83.4 per game.

A nine-position gap separates the clubs in the standings: Hapoel Tel Aviv sit fifth on a 5–2 record, while Anadolu Efes find themselves down in 13th at 3–4. Bookmakers view the contest identically to the projection model, with market odds across nine books reflecting a margin-free 68% probability for the home side.

The final score is modeled at 88–84, a four-point margin that suggests Anadolu Efes have a 55% chance to cover the generous +6.5 spread. Total points line up at 172.5, leaning 53% toward the under with the model forecasting 172 points combined.

• Win probability: Hapoel Tel Aviv 68%, Anadolu Efes 32%
• Projected score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 88, Anadolu Efes 84
• Spread: Hapoel Tel Aviv -6.5. The model has Anadolu Efes covering 55% of the time.
• Total: 172.5 points, with the under at 53%. Our projected total is 172.
• Hapoel Tel Aviv: 5th, 5–2
• Anadolu Efes: 13th, 3–4
• Leading scorers: Zach LeDay (Hapoel Tel Aviv, 15.3 points a game) and Cameron Payne (Anadolu Efes, 18.0 points a game)

Our pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv to win (68%). Projected score: 88–84. Full prediction · likely lineups

Lyon-Villeurbanne vs Partizan Mozzart Bet prediction

Partizan Mozzart Bet carry an underlying 3.5-point advantage in adjusted team efficiency, holding an even 0 rating against an average opponent compared to Lyon-Villeurbanne's -3.5. However, the usual two-point allowance for playing at LDLC Arena pulls the matchup nearly dead even, giving the French side a marginal 51% win likelihood in an 86–85 projection.

Defensive concerns linger heavily over Lyon-Villeurbanne, who have lost four of five while allowing a staggering 100.2 points a game alongside an 89.8 scoring return. Partizan Mozzart Bet arrive on two wins from five, featuring far lower-scoring affairs that averaged 73.4 scored and 79.6 surrendered.

In the EuroLeague hierarchy, the Serbian visitors take 11th spot at 4–3, placing them clear of Lyon-Villeurbanne in 15th with a 2–5 record. Market pricing across nine books matches the model's split assessment, rating the hosts at precisely 51% once bookmaker vig is removed.

With the line set at Lyon-Villeurbanne -1.5, the projected single-point victory gives Partizan Mozzart Bet a 56% probability to cover the spread. Combined scoring is forecast at 171 points, creating a 55% tilt toward the over against the posted total of 167.5.

• Win probability: Lyon-Villeurbanne 51%, Partizan Mozzart Bet 49%
• Projected score: Lyon-Villeurbanne 86, Partizan Mozzart Bet 85
• Spread: Lyon-Villeurbanne -1.5. The model has Partizan Mozzart Bet covering 56% of the time.
• Total: 167.5 points, with the over at 55%. Our projected total is 171.
• Lyon-Villeurbanne: 15th, 2–5
• Partizan Mozzart Bet: 11th, 4–3
• Leading scorers: Hugo Besson (Lyon-Villeurbanne, 11.3 points a game) and Carlik Jones (Partizan Mozzart Bet, 14.8 points a game)

Our pick: Lyon-Villeurbanne to win (51%). Projected score: 86–85. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups

Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris Kaunas prediction

Home-court value at PalaDozza makes the decisive difference for Virtus Bologna, who sit at an adjusted efficiency of 0 against -0.2 for Zalgiris Kaunas. That fractional 0.1-point gap on neutral ground swells to support a 54% host win projection, targeted at an 87–86 scoreline.

Strong recent form reinforces the Italian side's chances, having claimed four wins from their last five fixtures while generating 90.6 points and allowing 88.6. Zalgiris Kaunas won only two of their previous five games, logging averages of 84.2 points on offense and 86.4 on defense.

Heading into the encounter, Virtus Bologna hold 10th position at 4–3, running slightly ahead of the 12th-placed Lithuanians who stand at 3–4. The broader betting landscape echoes this valuation, pricing Virtus Bologna at 52% across nine sportsbooks once juice is eliminated.

The market lists Virtus Bologna at +1.5, presenting strong value for the projected outright winners who cover in 59% of simulations. A combined projection of 173 points favors the over at 54% relative to the 171.5 line.

• Win probability: Virtus Bologna 54%, Zalgiris Kaunas 46%
• Projected score: Virtus Bologna 87, Zalgiris Kaunas 86
• Spread: Virtus Bologna +1.5. The model has Virtus Bologna covering 59% of the time.
• Total: 171.5 points, with the over at 54%. Our projected total is 173.
• Virtus Bologna: 10th, 4–3
• Zalgiris Kaunas: 12th, 3–4
• Leading scorers: Wendell Moore (Virtus Bologna, 14.3 points a game) and Carsen Edwards (Zalgiris Kaunas, 17.3 points a game)

Our pick: Virtus Bologna to win (54%). Projected score: 87–86. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction · likely lineups

EuroLeague standings before tip-off

Full EuroLeague standings

Questions about Wednesday 28 October's EuroLeague games

What is the best EuroLeague bet for Wednesday 28 October?

The standout pick on the board is Hapoel Tel Aviv to beat Anadolu Efes at a 68% probability, categorized as a lean. Keep in mind that a selection with these odds still fails nearly a third of the time.

Which EuroLeague game is the hardest to call?

Lyon-Villeurbanne hosting Partizan Mozzart Bet is the closest matchup of the day, projected at 86–85 with the home side holding a slight 51% to 49% advantage.

Which game should have the most points?

The meeting between Hapoel Tel Aviv and Anadolu Efes leads all fixtures with a 172.5-point game total and an expected 88–84 finish.

How are these predictions made?

Calculations derive from team records, point differentials, and venue advantages, blending with betting market prices whenever available. You can review the methodology at How it works.

Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only; if betting stops being fun, see responsible gambling. More on the EuroLeague predictions page.