NBA predictions for Thursday 22 October

A seven-game NBA slate gets underway at 00:00 UTC when New Orleans Pelicans host Indiana Pacers, headlining a schedule that spans through late evening action in Philadelphia. Houston Rockets emerge as the primary conviction across the board, backed by a 72% likelihood to prevail on their home floor.

Tight margins define the remainder of the card, beginning with a 46% home projection for New Orleans Pelicans in the day's narrowest matchup. Offense takes center stage at FedExForum, where Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz carry the top market mark at 242.5 points. Only Houston qualifies as a strong pick while the other six contests sit in lean or toss-up territory. Across the campaign so far, the predictive model has correctly forecasted 9 of 11 NBA winners (82%), and every result is public.

NBA picks at a glance

New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers prediction

Indiana Pacers hold a slight 54% lean to pull off the road victory, with the model anticipating a tight 118–117 finish. Host venues historically provide roughly 2.1 points of advantage, but a consensus of 9 sportsbooks establishes the visitors at 58% after scrubbing the juice, aligning with the slight nod toward an away triumph.

Recent defensive output contrasts sharply between the squads. New Orleans Pelicans enter having secured 3 of their prior 4 appearances while limiting foes to 110.3 points per game and scoring 110.5. By comparison, Indiana Pacers managed only 1 victory in their last 4 tries, despite a higher offensive output of 119.8 points accompanied by 118.3 conceded.

Conference positioning gives the early edge to the hosts. New Orleans Pelicans occupy 3rd in the Western Conference with a 3–1 mark, and their adjusted efficiency shows +0.1 against the norm. Indiana Pacers rank 12th in the Eastern Conference at 1–3 with an adjusted efficiency of 0 points per game, yielding a 0.1-point metric edge to the home team.

Betting markets have established the spread at New Orleans Pelicans +3.5, where the home dogs project to cover 57% of scenarios compared to a 43% cover probability for the road favorites. The game total of 240.5 heavily leans toward the under at 61%, as calculations foresee a combined 235 points, well short of the listed line and the alternative 228.8 projection benchmark.

• Win probability: New Orleans Pelicans 46%, Indiana Pacers 54%
• Projected score: New Orleans Pelicans 117, Indiana Pacers 118
• Spread: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5. The model has New Orleans Pelicans covering 57% of the time.
• Total: 240.5 points, with the under at 61%. Our projected total is 235.
• New Orleans Pelicans: 3rd in the Western Conference, 3–1
• Indiana Pacers: 12th in the Eastern Conference, 1–3

Our pick: Indiana Pacers to win (54%). Projected score: 118–117. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction

Memphis Grizzlies vs Utah Jazz prediction

Memphis Grizzlies draw a modest 55% home advantage at FedExForum in a game forecasted at 119–118. An adjusted efficiency mark of +0.7 gives Memphis Grizzlies a 0.4-point baseline lead over Utah Jazz (+0.3), which combines with the league-standard 2.1-point local edge and a 53% implied market assessment across 9 outlets.

Both sides come in playing solid basketball over the short term. Utah Jazz have picked up 3 wins in 4 outings while tallying 113.3 points and conceding 109.8. Memphis Grizzlies match that identical 3-of-4 record, posting 117.5 points alongside an average allowance of 110.8.

Early standings place these franchises neck and neck at the top of the bracket. Memphis Grizzlies claim 1st in the Western Conference at 3–1, followed immediately by Utah Jazz who occupy 2nd with an identical 3–1 record.

Oddsmakers have set Memphis Grizzlies as 1.5-point favorites, a line they are expected to cover 52% of the time. The scoring benchmark stands at 242.5 points, but projection metrics suggest caution for high-scoring expectations, leaning 62% toward the under against modeled total estimates of 237 and 228.2 points.

• Win probability: Memphis Grizzlies 55%, Utah Jazz 45%
• Projected score: Memphis Grizzlies 119, Utah Jazz 118
• Spread: Memphis Grizzlies -1.5. The model has Memphis Grizzlies covering 52% of the time.
• Total: 242.5 points, with the under at 62%. Our projected total is 237.
• Memphis Grizzlies: 1st in the Western Conference, 3–1
• Utah Jazz: 2nd in the Western Conference, 3–1

Our pick: Memphis Grizzlies to win (55%). Projected score: 119–118. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks prediction

Houston Rockets represent the clear slate-leading pick with a 72% projection to defeat Dallas Mavericks by a score of 119–111. A +0.7 adjusted efficiency rating hands the hosts a 1.5-point baseline buffer against Dallas Mavericks (-0.8), expanded further by a standard 2.1-point court advantage and a 77% clean bookmaker market rate across 9 providers.

Recent form strongly supports the hosts' potent attack. Houston Rockets have secured 2 of their past 3 games, pouring in 122.0 points per contest while surrendering 112.7. Dallas Mavericks, meanwhile, took 1 win from their last 4 outings, struggling on the defensive end with 121.5 points conceded against 114.3 scored.

Table positions separate these division rivals in the Western Conference, with Houston Rockets sitting 5th (2–1) and Dallas Mavericks lagging in 12th (1–3). Head-to-head records remain balanced at 1 win each across their 2 latest meetings, though Dallas Mavericks took the most recent battle 132–115 on 2026-10-11.

At -8.5 on the spread, Houston Rockets present only a 46% cover rate, tilting the 54% likelihood toward Dallas Mavericks keeping it inside the number. The market total sits at 229.5 points, essentially mirroring the projections which anticipate an aggregate of 230 points (and a 229.8 estimate) with a 51% tilt toward the over.

• Win probability: Houston Rockets 72%, Dallas Mavericks 28%
• Projected score: Houston Rockets 119, Dallas Mavericks 111
• Spread: Houston Rockets -8.5. The model has Dallas Mavericks covering 54% of the time.
• Total: 229.5 points, with the over at 51%. Our projected total is 230.
• Houston Rockets: 5th in the Western Conference, 2–1
• Dallas Mavericks: 12th in the Western Conference, 1–3

Our pick: Houston Rockets to win (72%). Projected score: 119–111. Full prediction

Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors prediction

Los Angeles Lakers are tabbed as 62% favorites to protect Crypto.com Arena against Golden State Warriors in a 117–114 projection. Market trading backs that posture with a 67% implied line across 9 books, offsetting the fact that Golden State Warriors hold an adjusted efficiency advantage (+1 to -0.7) before factoring in the 2.2-point home boost.

Form guides present a stark contrast heading into tip-off. Golden State Warriors have taken 4 of their previous 5 games while registering 116.4 points and giving up only 106.8. In opposition, Los Angeles Lakers won 2 of their last 5, averaging 106.8 points while giving up 111.8 per contest.

Those results leave Golden State Warriors 4th in the Western Conference at 4–2, whereas Los Angeles Lakers sit 11th with a 2–3 record. Recent history also belongs to the Bay Area franchise, as Golden State Warriors won both of their last 2 clashes, including a 101–89 decision on 2026-10-14.

A -6.5 spread in favor of Los Angeles Lakers gives value to Golden State Warriors, who project to cover 58% of the time in this spot. The points line is posted at 233.5, with the under holding a 55% edge against a projected outcome of 231 total points.

• Win probability: Los Angeles Lakers 62%, Golden State Warriors 38%
• Projected score: Los Angeles Lakers 117, Golden State Warriors 114
• Spread: Los Angeles Lakers -6.5. The model has Golden State Warriors covering 58% of the time.
• Total: 233.5 points, with the under at 55%. Our projected total is 231.
• Los Angeles Lakers: 11th in the Western Conference, 2–3
• Golden State Warriors: 4th in the Western Conference, 4–2

Our pick: Los Angeles Lakers to win (62%). Projected score: 117–114. Full prediction

Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns prediction

Portland Trail Blazers get a 58% nod from the numbers to earn a 116–114 victory over Phoenix Suns. The mathematical lean rests on Portland Trail Blazers boasting a +0.2 adjusted efficiency rating versus -0.6 for the visitors, which complements Moda Center's 2.2-point court value and a 57% market-implied probability from 9 bookmakers.

Momentum leans noticeably toward the Pacific Northwest. Portland Trail Blazers captured 2 of their last 3 games while posting 117.0 points and conceding 114.7. Phoenix Suns have dropped 4 of their last 5 matches, putting up 109.0 points while allowing 114.6 per contest.

Standings in the Western Conference reflect those respective runs. Portland Trail Blazers currently hold 6th place at 2–1, whereas Phoenix Suns reside down in 13th with an uninspiring 1–4 record.

Portland Trail Blazers lay 3.5 points on the home spread, but simulations hand Phoenix Suns a 52% probability of staying within the line. Against a 233.5-point total, the under commands a 57% likelihood, tracking toward an anticipated 230 points.

• Win probability: Portland Trail Blazers 58%, Phoenix Suns 42%
• Projected score: Portland Trail Blazers 116, Phoenix Suns 114
• Spread: Portland Trail Blazers -3.5. The model has Phoenix Suns covering 52% of the time.
• Total: 233.5 points, with the under at 57%. Our projected total is 230.
• Portland Trail Blazers: 6th in the Western Conference, 2–1
• Phoenix Suns: 13th in the Western Conference, 1–4

Our pick: Portland Trail Blazers to win (58%). Projected score: 116–114. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction

Los Angeles Clippers vs Sacramento Kings prediction

Los Angeles Clippers are modeled to claim home court with a 63% win probability, tracking toward a 116–112 outcome. A sizable 2-point adjusted efficiency gap (+0.2 against -1.8) underpins the expectation, accompanied by a 1.5-point home venue boost and a matching 63% mark across 9 sportsbooks.

Recent production highlights a major discrepancy in form. Sacramento Kings enter on an 0–5 cold streak where they managed just 102.8 points per game while yielding 117.6. Los Angeles Clippers have won 2 of their last 3, producing 110.7 points and yielding 108.3.

The Western Conference ladder shows Sacramento Kings anchored at the bottom in 15th at 0–5. Los Angeles Clippers sit in the upper half, occupying 7th position with a 2–1 record.

Sportsbooks deal Los Angeles Clippers as 4.5-point favorites, though Sacramento Kings have a narrow 51% chance to cover according to the data. With an over/under set at 228.5, the under holds a slight 52% edge as the modeled score totals 228 points.

• Win probability: Los Angeles Clippers 63%, Sacramento Kings 37%
• Projected score: Los Angeles Clippers 116, Sacramento Kings 112
• Spread: Los Angeles Clippers -4.5. The model has Sacramento Kings covering 51% of the time.
• Total: 228.5 points, with the under at 52%. Our projected total is 228.
• Los Angeles Clippers: 7th in the Western Conference, 2–1
• Sacramento Kings: 15th in the Western Conference, 0–5

Our pick: Los Angeles Clippers to win (63%). Projected score: 116–112. Full prediction

Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction

Philadelphia 76ers pick up a 59% chance to take the nightcap at Xfinity Mobile Arena, projecting to beat Cleveland Cavaliers 118–115. A stout 3.7-point home court weighting proves influential here, combining with an adjusted efficiency advantage of +0.1 to -0.4 and a 58% consensus implied probability across 9 bookmakers.

Defensive lapses have marked recent outings on both sides. Philadelphia 76ers have earned 2 victories over their past 5 appearances, scoring 112.0 and letting in 116.0 points per contest. Cleveland Cavaliers won 1 of their last 3, showing potent offense (116.0) but surrendering 120.3 points per night.

Both teams find themselves lower down the Eastern Conference table during this opening phase. Cleveland Cavaliers sit in 11th spot at 1–2, slightly ahead of Philadelphia 76ers who hold 13th position at 1–3.

A spread of -4.5 gives Cleveland Cavaliers the cover advantage at 53%. Meanwhile, the listed game total of 235.5 favors the under at 56%, matching up against an estimated total of 233 points.

• Win probability: Philadelphia 76ers 59%, Cleveland Cavaliers 41%
• Projected score: Philadelphia 76ers 118, Cleveland Cavaliers 115
• Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -4.5. The model has Cleveland Cavaliers covering 53% of the time.
• Total: 235.5 points, with the under at 56%. Our projected total is 233.
• Philadelphia 76ers: 13th in the Eastern Conference, 1–3
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 11th in the Eastern Conference, 1–2

Our pick: Philadelphia 76ers to win (59%). Projected score: 118–115. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care. Full prediction

NBA standings before tip-off

Full NBA standings

Questions about Thursday 22 October's NBA games

What is the best NBA bet for Thursday 22 October?

Houston Rockets represent the slate's highest probability at 72%, ranking as the solitary strong pick. Keep in mind that even a 72% chance implies a loss in 3 out of 10 instances.

Which NBA game is the hardest to call?

The clash between New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers is the narrowest, projecting an 117–118 scoreline with New Orleans Pelicans at 46% and Indiana Pacers at 54%.

Which game should have the most points?

Memphis Grizzlies taking on Utah Jazz is expected to see the most scoring, featuring an over/under benchmark of 242.5 points and a 119–118 projection.

How are these predictions made?

Team power ratings are derived from past outcomes, venue location, and victory margins, then merged with live bookmaker pricing when lines are posted. Learn about the complete system via How it works.

Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ only; if betting stops being fun, see responsible gambling. More on the NBA predictions page.