Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction
Our pick
Toss-upPrediction updated
- Predicted score
- 115–114
- Margin
- +1
Who will win Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies?
Golden State Warriors are slight home favourites at 53%, with the model projecting a 115–114 win over Memphis Grizzlies.
Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies arrive in similar form, each having won 4 of their last 5, but they get there in different ways. Golden State Warriors have scored 116.4 and allowed 106.8 points a game over that stretch, while Memphis Grizzlies have put up 118.6 and conceded 109.2. Both teams are winning, and both are doing it with offense that runs ahead of their defense.
The table tells a story that the form line complicates. Memphis Grizzlies sit 1st in the Western Conference at 3–1, while Golden State Warriors are 4th at 4–2. On adjusted efficiency, Memphis Grizzlies rate +2.2 points per game against an average side and Golden State Warriors +1, a 1.2-point edge to Memphis Grizzlies. That edge is real but small, and home court is worth about 2.3 points in this competition, which is enough to flip the balance toward Golden State Warriors.
That flip is why the model lands on Golden State Warriors by a single point, 115–114, and gives them 53%. The ratings favour Memphis Grizzlies slightly on a neutral floor, but the home adjustment more than covers the gap. The result is close to a coin flip, so the lean toward Golden State Warriors should be treated with care rather than as a firm edge.
Golden State Warriors to win at 53%, with a projected score of 115–114.
Tale of the tape
- 0–0Season record1–0
- 0–0Last 10 games1–0
- –Points per game123.0
- –Points allowed per game103.0
- –Average margin+20.0
- 1 dayRest before this game1 day
- 1Games in the last 7 days1
- +1.0Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+2.2
- −0.1AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.8
- +1.1DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.4
- +2.3Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–
Quarter by quarter
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | – | – | – | – |
| Memphis Grizzlies | −2.029.0–31.0 | +15.035.0–20.0 | +6.034.0–28.0 | +1.025.0–24.0 |
Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.
Recent form
Golden State Warriors
4–14–2, 4th in Western Conference
- vs Portland Trail Blazers128–118
- @ Los Angeles Lakers101–89
- vs Sacramento Kings111–106
- @ Portland Trail Blazers118–123
- vs Los Angeles Lakers124–98
Memphis Grizzlies
4–13–1, 1st in Western Conference
- vs Utah Jazz123–103
- vs Charlotte Hornets116–98
- @ Chicago Bulls104–100
- vs Orlando Magic118–122
- @ Atlanta Hawks132–123
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.