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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets prediction

HomeOklahoma City Thunder1–4, 14th in Western ConferenceAwayDenver Nuggets3–2, 8th in Western Conference
62–62Q3 · 10'
69%31%
Win probability
Live · updates automatically
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Our pick

Lean
Oklahoma City Thunder to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
120–113
Margin
+7

Our lines

Point spread
+8.5Denver Nuggets to cover · 56%
Total points
235.5Under · 56% · projected 228.3
Fair odds
1.44Oklahoma City Thunder · Denver Nuggets 3.25

Who will win Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets?

The numbers side with Oklahoma City Thunder (69%) at home against Denver Nuggets, with 120–113 the most likely shape of the final score.

Oklahoma City Thunder have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 111.0 and allowing 114.6 points a game over that stretch. Denver Nuggets have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 115.6 and allowing 114.2 points a game over that stretch.

Oklahoma City Thunder sit 14th in the Western Conference at 1–4, while Denver Nuggets sit 8th in the Western Conference at 3–2.

On adjusted efficiency, Oklahoma City Thunder rate +0.6 and Denver Nuggets +0.2 points per game against an average side, a 0.4-point edge to Oklahoma City Thunder. Home court is worth about 3.7 points in this competition.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Oklahoma City Thunder at 72% across 6 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 covers 44% of the time on our numbers, and the under 235.5 lands 56% against a projected 228.4 points.

Oklahoma City Thunder to win (69%). Projected score: 120–113.

Markets

MarketSelectionModelMarketFinalFair odds
Winner (incl. overtime)Oklahoma City Thunder62%72%69%1.44
Winner (incl. overtime)Denver Nuggets38%28%31%3.25
Point spreadOklahoma City Thunder -8.537%48%44%2.29
Point spreadDenver Nuggets +8.563%52%56%1.78
Total pointsOver 235.533%51%44%2.27
Total pointsUnder 235.567%49%56%1.79

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Tale of the tape

Oklahoma City ThunderBefore tip-offDenver Nuggets
  • 1–0Season record0–0
  • 1–0Last 10 games0–0
  • 116.0Points per game–
  • 104.0Points allowed per game–
  • +12.0Average margin–
  • 1 dayRest before this game5 days
  • 1Games in the last 7 days1
  • +0.6Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side+0.2
  • −0.3AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents+0.2
  • +0.9DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.0
  • +3.7Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Oklahoma City Thunder+6.034.0–28.0+15.031.0–16.0−8.028.0–36.0−1.023.0–24.0
Denver Nuggets––––

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Team leaders

Oklahoma City ThunderThis seasonDenver Nuggets

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Oklahoma City Thunder

Likely starting five

  1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    32.0
  2. Chet Holmgren
    Center · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    14.0
  3. Jalen Williams
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    12.0
  4. Cason Wallace
    Guard · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    6.0
  5. Isaiah Hartenstein
    Forward · Started 1 of last 1
    PPG
    4.0
Away
Denver Nuggets

No box scores for Denver Nuggets in our data yet.

Full lineups and bench
Photo credits (9)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Frenchieinportland, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jalen Williams: Daiei Onoguchi, CC BY 4.0; A. Mitchell: Daiei Onoguchi, CC BY 4.0; J. McCain: Brady Saylor, CC BY-SA 4.0; Chet Holmgren: Steve Cheng, Bruin Report Online, CC BY 2.0; Cason Wallace: Brady Saylor, CC BY-SA 4.0; Isaiah Hartenstein: Granada, CC BY-SA 4.0; Alex Caruso: Dennis Adair, CC BY 2.0; A. Mara: TonyTheTiger, CC0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Oklahoma City Thunder

2–3

1–4, 14th in Western Conference

Denver Nuggets

3–2

3–2, 8th in Western Conference

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day