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Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs prediction

HomeDallas Mavericks1–3, 12th in Western ConferenceAwaySan Antonio Spurs2–3, 10th in Western Conference
Tip-off
59%41%
Win probability

Our pick

Toss-up
Dallas Mavericks to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
115–112
Margin
+3

Who will win Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs?

The numbers side with Dallas Mavericks (59%) at home against San Antonio Spurs, with 115–112 the most likely shape of the final score.

Dallas Mavericks have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 114.2 and allowing 116.8 points a game over that stretch. San Antonio Spurs have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 114.4 and allowing 109.8 points a game over that stretch.

Dallas Mavericks sit 12th in the Western Conference at 1–3, while San Antonio Spurs sit 10th in the Western Conference at 2–3.

On adjusted efficiency, Dallas Mavericks rate -0.1 and San Antonio Spurs -1 points per game against an average side, a 0.9-point edge to Dallas Mavericks. Home court is worth about 2.1 points in this competition.

Dallas Mavericks to win (59%). Projected score: 115–112. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.

Tale of the tape

Dallas MavericksBefore tip-offSan Antonio Spurs
  • 1–1Season record0–2
  • 1–1Last 10 games0–2
  • W1Current streakL2
  • 115.5Points per game107.0
  • 116.5Points allowed per game115.0
  • −1.0Average margin−8.0
  • Back-to-backRest before this gameBack-to-back
  • 2Games in the last 7 days2
  • 39.5Rebounds per game42.5
  • 24.0Assists per game21.0
  • 12.5Three-pointers made per game11.0
  • 44.5Bench points per game25.0
  • −0.1Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−1.0
  • +0.4AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−1.1
  • −0.6DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+0.0
  • +2.1Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 2 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Dallas Mavericks+5.535.0–29.5−4.522.5–27.0−2.029.5–31.50.028.5–28.5
San Antonio Spurs−5.527.5–33.0−6.024.0–30.0+3.029.0–26.0+0.526.5–26.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

C. FlaggDallas MavericksVSStephon CastleGuard · San Antonio Spurs

Leading scorers · averages over the last 2 games

  • 23.0Points19.5
  • 5.0Rebounds7.0
  • 4.0Assists3.0
  • 1.5Three-pointers made4.0
  • 25.0Minutes30.7

Team leaders

Dallas MavericksThis seasonSan Antonio Spurs

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Guards
Kyrie IrvingVSStephon Castle
PTS
19.5·19.5
REB
2.5·7.0
AST
2.5·3.0
Guards
Max ChristieVSDe'Aaron Fox
PTS
10.5·16.5
REB
3.5·5.5
AST
3.0·8.0
Forwards
P.J. WashingtonVSDevin Vassell
PTS
15.0·8.5
REB
8.5·3.5
AST
1.0·1.5
Starters
C. FlaggVSD. Harper
PTS
23.0·19.0
REB
5.0·5.0
AST
4.0·3.5
Cross-matchup
Daniel GaffordVSVictor Wembanyama
PTS
3.0·18.5
REB
3.0·13.0
AST
3.0·2.5

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Dallas Mavericks

Likely starting five

  1. Max Christie
    Guard · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    10.5
  2. P.J. Washington
    Forward · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    15.0
  3. C. Flagg
    Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    23.0
  4. Kyrie Irving
    Guard · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    19.5
  5. Daniel Gafford
    Forward · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    3.0
Away
San Antonio Spurs

Likely starting five

  1. D. Harper
    Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    19.0
  2. Devin Vassell
    Forward · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    8.5
  3. Victor Wembanyama
    Center · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    18.5
  4. De'Aaron Fox
    Guard · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    16.5
  5. Stephon Castle
    Guard · Started 2 of last 2
    PPG
    19.5
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (16)

C. Flagg: Hameltion, CC0; Stephon Castle: The White House, Public domain; Naji Marshall: FOX Sports, CC BY 3.0; Kyrie Irving: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0; Victor Wembanyama: Thomas S, CC BY-SA 2.0; De'Aaron Fox: Bandai Namco Entertainment America, CC BY 3.0; Max Christie: AlexanderJonesi, CC BY-SA 2.0; Daniel Gafford: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0; Zaccharie Risacher: Yoann210, CC BY 4.0; Marcus Sasser: Gamecock Central, CC BY 2.0; Sergio De Larrea: Deriman Arca, CC0; Devin Vassell: Photo by Jacob Gralton, CC BY-SA 2.0; Julian Champagnie: Frenchieinportland, CC BY 4.0; Keldon Johnson: FOX Sports, CC BY 3.0; Luke Kornet: Rikster2, CC BY-SA 4.0; Harrison Barnes: Frenchieinportland, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Dallas Mavericks

2–3

1–3, 12th in Western Conference

San Antonio Spurs

2–3

2–3, 10th in Western Conference

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day