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Panathinaikos vs AS Karditsas prediction

HomePanathinaikos3–0, 7th in AwayAS Karditsas2–1, 3rd in
Tip-off
90%10%
Win probability

Our pick

Strong
Panathinaikos to win

Prediction updated

Predicted score
87–74
Margin
+13

Who will win Panathinaikos vs AS Karditsas?

Panathinaikos are the pick at home against AS Karditsas, with a 90% win probability and a projected 87–74 scoreline.

Panathinaikos enter this game as clear favourites, and the model gives them a 90% chance of winning at home. Their recent form backs that up: three wins from three, with a scoring average of 94.0 and just 69.3 conceded over that run. AS Karditsas have also been competitive, winning two of their last three while putting up 70.7 points and giving up 71.0.

The table tells an interesting story, since AS Karditsas sit 3rd at 2–1 while Panathinaikos are 7th at 3–0. The standings are tight and early-season, so the efficiency numbers are a better guide. On adjusted efficiency, Panathinaikos are +5.2 points per game against an average side, compared with -0.5 for AS Karditsas. That is a 5.7-point edge before home court is factored in, and home court is worth about 3.9 points in this competition.

The market sees the same picture. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, Panathinaikos are priced at 93% across 4 bookmakers, slightly above the model's 90%. AS Karditsas' case rests on their recent results and their higher league position, but the ratings gap and the home venue make an upset unlikely. The model's projected score of 87–74 reflects a game Panathinaikos should control without running away with it.

Panathinaikos to win (90%), with a projected score of 87–74.

Tale of the tape

PanathinaikosBefore tip-offAS Karditsas
  • 3–0Season record2–1
  • 2–0Home / road recordThe home team at home, the away team on the road0–1
  • 3–0Last 10 games2–1
  • W3Current streakL1
  • 94.0Points per game70.7
  • 69.3Points allowed per game71.0
  • +24.7Average margin−0.3
  • 1 dayRest before this game6 days
  • 2Games in the last 7 days0
  • 32.6Rebounds per game32.0
  • 19.8Assists per game11.7
  • 9.4Three-pointers made per game6.0
  • 47.6Bench points per game31.7
  • +5.2Net ratingPoints per game better or worse than an average side−0.5
  • +2.9AttackPoints scored above average, adjusted for opponents−2.2
  • +2.3DefencePoints kept below average, adjusted for opponents+1.7
  • +3.9Home courtWorth this many points in this competition–

Team numbers per game from the last 3 box scores; records and scoring from this season in this competition.

Quarter by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4
Panathinaikos+13.026.3–13.3+6.423.7–17.3+10.724.7–14.0−5.419.3–24.7
AS Karditsas−2.713.3–16.0+5.721.0–15.3−3.019.7–22.7−0.316.7–17.0

Average margin per period over each team's last 10 games in this competition, with scored–allowed underneath.

Key matchup

Kendrick NunnPanathinaikosVSJustin TurnerAS Karditsas

Leading scorers · averages over the last 3 games

  • 14.5Points17.0
  • 2.0Rebounds2.0
  • 5.5Assists2.0
  • 2.5Three-pointers made1.7
  • 20.3Minutes31.9

Team leaders

PanathinaikosThis seasonAS Karditsas

Per-game averages this season in this competition from the box scores so far (2 per team); current squads only.

Key battles

Starters
Sylvain FranciscoVSJustin Turner
PTS
13.4·17.0
REB
1.2·2.0
AST
4.8·2.0
Starters
Nigel HayesVSK. Jackson
PTS
12.6·8.0
REB
3.2·2.0
AST
1.0·2.0
Starters
Konstantinos MitoglouVSC. Smith
PTS
8.2·5.7
REB
5.4·6.0
AST
1.2·1.0
Starters
Guerschon YabuseleVSAndreas Petropoulos
PTS
6.5·4.7
REB
3.5·2.7
AST
1.8·0.3
Starters
Juan HernangomezVSFrancis Okoro
PTS
5.4·3.7
REB
4.8·7.3
AST
0.6·0.7

Player projectionsPro

Likely lineups

Home
Panathinaikos

Likely starting five

  1. Konstantinos Mitoglou
    Started 5 of last 5
    PPG
    8.2
  2. Sylvain Francisco
    Started 3 of last 5
    PPG
    13.4
  3. Nigel Hayes
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    12.6
  4. Juan Hernangomez
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    5.4
  5. Guerschon Yabusele
    Started 2 of last 5
    PPG
    6.5
Missed the last game
Away
AS Karditsas

Likely starting five

  1. Justin Turner
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    17.0
  2. K. Jackson
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    8.0
  3. C. Smith
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    5.7
  4. Andreas Petropoulos
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    4.7
  5. Francis Okoro
    Started 3 of last 3
    PPG
    3.7
Full lineups and benchPlayer stats and season averages
Photo credits (14)

Kendrick Nunn: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Justin Turner: Goat6787, CC BY-SA 4.0; Konstantinos Mitoglou: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Nikos Gikas: Savvasg21, CC BY-SA 4.0; Sylvain Francisco: Like tears in rain, CC BY-SA 4.0; Juan Hernangomez: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Guerschon Yabusele: Fabien Zaghini, CC BY 2.0; Brancou Badio: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Mathias Lessort: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Jerian Grant: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Moustapha Fall: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Panagiotis Kalaitzakis: Zafer, CC BY 4.0; Andreas Petropoulos: Savvasg21, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jordan McRae: SneakinDeacon, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

Panathinaikos

3–0

3–0, 7th in

AS Karditsas

2–1

2–1, 3rd in

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day